Market Outlook
September 13, 2019
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open flat tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
(0.5)
(167)
37,104
Nifty
(0.5)
(55)
10,981
US stocks fluctuated over the course of the trading day on Thursday but largely
Mid Cap
(0.2)
(25)
13,610
maintained a positive bias. The major averages once again ended the session at
their best closing levels in over a month. The Dow edged up 0.1 percent to 27,182
Small Cap
0.1
16
12,907
and the Nasdaq climbed by 0.3 percent to 8,194.
Bankex
0.2
60
31,275
The UK stocks held steady on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to
delay increasing tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports and British
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
American Tobacco unveiled plans to cut 2,300 jobs. The FTSE 100 was up by 0.1
Dow Jones
0.1
46
27,182
percent to 7,344.
Nasdaq
0.3
25
8,194
On domestic front, Indian market fell on Thursday as investors awaited the release
FTSE
0.1
59
7,344
of industrial output and retail inflation data later in the day for directional cues. The
Nikkei
0.7
162
21,759
benchmark BSE Sensex was ended down by 0.5 percent to 37,104.
Hang Seng
(0.3)
(72)
27,087
Shanghai Com
0.7
23
3,031
News Analysis
L&T bags contract worth up to Rs 2,500 in Maharashtra and Odisha
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Advances
1,364
975
Declines
1,116
828
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Unchanged
163
323
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Volumes (` Cr)
Refer Pg5 onwards
BSE
2,520
Top Picks
NSE
32,526
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
721
867
20.3
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
ICICI Bank
Financials
Buy
403
490
21.7
FII
298
(5,793) (2,53,176)
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
160
306
91.6
*MFs
18
3,080
40,631
Bata India
Others
Accumulate
1,551
1,643
5.9
KEI Industries
Capital Goods Accumulate
468
612
30.8
More Top Picks on Pg4
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
324
11.5
1,604
8.7
84
8.5
420
7.5
302
7.1
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
440
-7.5
RNAM
262
-5.2
68
-5.1
13
-4.9
1,864
-4.8
As on Sept 12, 2019
Market Outlook
September 13, 2019
News Analysis
L&T bags contract worth up to Rs 2,500 in Maharashtra and
Odisha
Engineering and construction major Larsen & Toubro (L&T) on Thursday said it has
procured 'significant' orders in Maharashtra and Odisha. According to the
company's project classification, the total value of the 'significant' contract falls in
the range of Rs 1,000 crore-Rs 2,500 crore. "The water & effluent treatment
business of L&T Construction has secured orders from prestigious clients from two
states in India," the company said in a statement. It said an EPC (engineering,
procurement and construction) order has been bagged for the Gunjawani project
piped distribution network, including the Narayanpur Lift Irrigation Scheme from
Maharashtra Krishna Valley Development Corporation-WRD, Pune. The scope
includes survey, investigation, design, procurement and construction, it said and
added the business has also been mandated to prepare all the relevant documents
to form a water user association for the command area, to build the capacity of
farmers to attain the maximum crop yield, by conducting farmers' awareness
training programmes for the effective functioning of the scheme.
The project envisages to irrigate 21,392 hectares of culturable command area
(CCA) in Taluka Velhe, Bhor and Purandar of the Pune district, by drawing water
from the Gunjawani Dam. The company said another EPC order has been secured
from the Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Department in Odisha to execute two
individual rural-piped water supply projects in the Jharsuguda district.
Economic and Political News
AIC enters coinsurance deal with 3 public sector insurance firms for PMFBY
CPI inflation rises marginally to 3.2% in August on back of food prices
After weak GDP numbers, IIP grows 4.3% in July against 1.3% in June
Bank of Baroda seeks to sell Dena Bank headquarter in BKC for Rs 530 cr
10-year bond yields rise, may become tough for banks to pass on rate cuts
Corporate News
RIL's e-auction mechanism for new KG-D6 gas; bidding likely on Oct 11
Hindustan Unilever emerges front-runner for Dinshaw's Dairy Foods
Blackstone's proposal for Coffee Day's tech park agreement likely next week
Biocon forays into China, signs pact with CMS to sell 3 generic products
Titan Company plans to raise Rs 900 crore through commercial paper
L&T bags contract worth up to Rs 2,500 in Maharashtra and Odisha
Market Outlook
September 13, 2019
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
Blue Star
6,941
721
867
20.3
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
ICICI Bank
2,60,096
403
490
21.7
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
3,692
468
612
30.8
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
1,93,083
6,392
8,552
33.8
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,263
565
1,000
76.9
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
1,343
160
306
91.6
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
6,21,014
2,270
2,620
15.4
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
We expect strong PAT growth on back of healthy
growth in automobile segment (on back of new
launches and facelifts in some of the model ) and
M&M
67,356
542
724
33.6
strong growth in Tractors segment coupled by its
strong brand recall and improvement in rural
sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop solutions
Amber Enterprises
2,634
838
910
8.6
provider for the major brands in the RAC industry
and currently serves eight out of the 10 top RAC
brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India, offering
footwear, accessories and bags across brands. We
expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR of ~16% to
Bata India
19,937
1,551
1,643
5.9
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to new
product launches, higher number of stores addition
and focus on women’s high growth segment and
margin improvement
Market Outlook
September 13, 2019
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by
Shriram Transport Finance
rising bond yields on the back of stronger
23,569
1,039
1,385
33.3
pricing power and an enhancing ROE by
750bps over FY18-20E, supported by decline
in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27%
CAGR over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong
steel demand and capacity addition. On the
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
10,935
107
250
133.2
bottom line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to
profit by FY19 on back of strong operating
margin improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
2,136
1,461
1,570
7.4
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase
its share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic
markets, given its focus on achieving growth
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
36,803
628
890
41.7
through productivity. Aurobindo will report net
revenue & net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8%
resp. during FY2018-20E. Valuations are
cheap V/s its peers and own fair multiples of
17-18x.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy
CAGR of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers
RBL Bank
15,802
367
540
47.1
level ROA (1.2% FY18) to expand led by
margin expansion and lower credit cost.
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the
leading brands in kitchen appliances in India
after its successful transformation from a
TTK Prestige
8,130
5,865
7,708
31.4
single product company to offering an entire
gamut of home and kitchen appliances. We
are expecting a CAGR of 18% in revenue and
25% in PAT over FY2018-20.
Maintain Hold.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 13, 2019
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,247
244
360
47.5
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
1,557
1,043
2,178
108.7
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,749
2,206
2,500
13.3
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years. We can book out from the stock with 16%
profit at Rs. 2500 TP.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
1,821
149
256
72.4
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
19,245
96
150
55.9
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Strong brands and distribution network would boost
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,183
252
549
117.5
growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at an
inexpensive valuation.
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,055
38
95
149.0
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
We expect Inox Wind to report exponential growth
in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-20E. The
growth would be led by changing renewable
energy industry dynamics in favor of wind energy
Inox Winds
760
34
120
250.4
segment viz. changes in auction regime from Feed-
In-Tariff (FIT) to reverse auction regime and
Government’s guidance for 10GW auction in FY19
and FY20 each.
Considering the strong CV demand due to change
in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger pre-buying
activities), pick up in construction activities and no
Ashok Leyland
18,347
63
156
149.6
significant impact on industry due to recent axle
load norms, we recommend BUY on Ashok Leyland
at current valuations.
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
21,137
96
118
22.9
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
Well planned strategy to grow small business loans
and cross-selling would propel fees income. We
Yes Bank
17,329
68
NA
NA
expect YES to grow its advance much higher than
industry and improvement in asset quality to
support profitability.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
988
184
NA
NA
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Market Outlook
September 13, 2019
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
May 16, 2019
JN
Housing Starts YoY
% Change
Sep
0.02
(0.01)
May 17, 2019
JN
Annualized Housing Starts
% Change
Sep
0.957m
0.950m
May 17, 2019
JN
Construction Orders YoY
% Change
Sep
0.01
--
May 20, 2019
12:00 AM
ES
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Sep
0.06
--
May 21, 2019
12:00 AM
RO
ILO Unemployment Rate
% Change
Sep
0.04
--
May 24, 2019
3:15 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate SA
% Change
Sep
0.03
--
May 25, 2019
4:30 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate Gross Rate
% Change
Sep
0.04
0.04
May 26, 2019
4:30 AM
FI
Trade Balance
% Change
Aug F
-400m
--
May 28, 2019
4:30 AM
TU
Economic Confidence
% Change
Oct
71.00
--
May 30, 2019
5:20 AM
TU
Trade Balance
% Ratio
Sep
-2.42b
-1.90b
May 30, 2019
5:20 AM
TU
Central Bank Inflation Report
%
June 02, 2019
5:30 AM
TH
Exports YoY
% Change
Sep
0.06
--
June 03, 2019
5:30 AM
TH
Exports
% Change
Sep
$22380m
--
June 04, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Imports YoY
%
Sep
0.24
--
June 08, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Imports
%
Sep
$21776m
--
June 09, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Trade Balance
Thousands
Sep
$604m
--
June 10, 2019
6:00 AM
TH
BoP Current Account Balance
% Change
Sep
$753m
$1200m
June 11, 2019
0-Jan-00
AU
CPI YoY
% Change
3Q
0.02
0.02
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 13, 2019
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
8.5
8.4
9.1
9.0
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
7.0
7.0
8.1
8.0
7.6
7.7
7.0
6.5
8.0
6.8
7.0
7.0
6.0
7.0
6.3
6.6
4.8
6.1
4.6
4.5
4.6
5.0
5.6
3.8
6.0
4.0
2.6
5.0
3.0
1.7
4.0
2.0
1.0
0.3
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
5.2
5.07
54.0
4.9
4.9
5.0
4.4
4.6
4.3
4.2
52.0
3.7
3.7
4.0
3.4
50.0
3.0
2.6
2.3
2.1
2.0
48.0
2.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
7.00
30.0
6.50
25.0
6.00
20.0
5.50
15.0
5.00
10.0
4.50
5.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 15 April, 2019
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 13, 2019
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
8.0
(%)
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.0
0.7
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Market Outlook
September 13, 2019
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
1,01,134
-0.7
4.2
31.9
Russia
Micex
2,740
0.0
2.8
16.8
India
Nifty
11,023
-0.9
-7.5
-5.6
China
Shanghai Composite
2,886
-1.6
-0.4
-1.5
South Africa
Top 40
51,925
3.8
9.7
3.7
Mexico
Mexbol
44,686
-11.2
-15.1
-11.3
Indonesia
LQ45
1,006
-3.2
4.1
-8.5
Malaysia
KLCI
1,708
1.4
1.7
-8.0
Thailand
SET 50
1,099
0.2
0.6
-8.9
USA
Dow Jones
26,406
-1.7
6.4
1.6
UK
FTSE
7,207
-5.0
0.6
-3.0
Japan
Nikkei
20,704
-3.8
0.5
-9.5
Germany
DAX
11,939
-2.1
1.8
-3.4
France
CAC
5,480
-0.7
0.2
1.4
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 30 August, 2019
Market Outlook
September 13, 2019
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
17-08-2018
Top Picks
Ashok Leyland
128
156
Open
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
30-11-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
7,206
8,200
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
30-08-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
626
690
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
573
1016
Closed(17/08/2018)
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
27-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,170
1,287
Open
18-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,024
1,200
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
27-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
974
1,071
Open
14-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
868
1,000
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 13, 2019
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
FundamentalEndurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
September 13, 2019
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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